This difference is known as the on-the-run premium. In this paper, yield spreads between pairs of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities TIPS with identical maturities but of separate vintages are analyzed. Adjusting for differences in coupon rates and values of embedded deflation options, the results show a small, positive premium on recently issued TIPS - averaging between one and four basis points - that persists even after new similar TIPS are issued and hence is different from the on-the-run phenomenon observed in the nominal Treasury market. All errors are my own.
Louis working papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. Recent Working Papers by Rodolfo E.
Manuelli and Juan M. We assume that firms must access the bond market and they issue debt with a flexible structure coupon, face value, and maturity.
Since lenders do not refinance projects with positive but small net present value, firms may be forced to default in the first phase. We call this liquidity risk. The technology is such that earnings can switch to a higher but riskier level.
In this second phase firms have access to the equity market but they may default if this is the best option. We call this strategic default risk. In the model optimal maturity balances these two risks.
We show that firms with poor prospects and firms in more unstable industries will choose shorter maturities even if it is feasible to issue longer debt.
The model also offers predictions on how asset maturity, asset salability, and leverage influence maturity. Even though our model is extremely stylized we find that the predictions are roughly consistent with the evidence. Moreover, it offers some insights into the factors that determine the structure of the debt.
We show that a news shock has a significantly larger contemporaneous impact on sovereign credit spreads than a comparable shock to labor productivity. We develop a quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity that can generate impulse responses very similar to the empirical estimates.
The model also highlights that the effect of a news shock is stronger for an economy with shorter debt maturity. Finally, our analytic framework also suggests that as the precision of news increases, the economy may not increase its total indebtedness, but will be able to borrow at shorter maturities and pay lower spreads, especially during periods of high financial stress.
Mendoza, and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria Working Paper A updated October In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies.
We develop a small open economy model of sovereign risk with incomplete international financial markets, in which optimal oil extraction and sovereign default interact.
We use the model to understand the mechanisms behind the empirical facts, and show that it supports them. Additionally, a counterfactual analysis where we set the uniformly low tax rate of 10 percent reveals that aggregate investment rose by 7 percent in the long-run.
We introduce a slow mean-reverting process of consumption growth and a segmented asset market mechanism with heterogeneous trading technology to otherwise a standard heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model. First, a slow mean-reverting consumption growth process implies that the expected consumption growth rate is only slightly countercyclical and the process can exhibit a near zero first-order autocorrelation as seen in the data.
The very small countercyclicality of the expected consumption growth rate suggests that the long term bonds are risky and hence the term premia are positive.(a) Computing Time.
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When the period is stated in days or a longer unit of time:(A) exclude the day of the event that triggers the period;. Daniel Ellsberg (born April 7, ) is an American activist and former United States military analyst who, while employed by the RAND Corporation, precipitated a national political controversy in when he released the Pentagon Papers, a top-secret Pentagon study of the US government decision-making in relation to the Vietnam War, to The New York Times and other newspapers.
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